Interest rate barometer

Are you looking to buy a house or refinance your loan? Then it's useful to know how mortgage rates are likely to evolve. Our founder John Romain shares his insights.

• Short-term interest rate (variable mortgage interest rate from 1 to 5 years fixed interest rate): increasing slightly. Prior to the war in the Middle East, inflation in Europe had stabilised around the target level of 2%. The market expects the European Central Bank (ECB) to raise its policy interest rate by 0.25% before the summer, due to higher inflation expectations caused by the sharp rise in energy prices. Inflation in the eurozone was 1.9% in February 2026 and is expected to reach 2.5% in March 2026 as a result.
• Long-term interest rate (10 to 30-year fixed mortgage rates): stable to increasing slightly. The interest rate on Belgian 10-year government bonds is particularly relevant for mortgage rates with a similar fixed-rate term. In many eurozone countries, we see interest rates on government bonds rising due to deteriorating public finances and uncertainty about the consequences of the war in the Middle East. The interest rate on Belgian 10-year government bonds has risen over the past 12 months to ±3.59%. This is roughly the highest level in more than two years. We expect the 10-year government bond interest rate in Belgium to stabilise or increase slightly as in many EU countries, due to increasing debt (cf. rising expenditure on defence and infrastructure, mounting budget deficits, the agreement between European leaders in December to provide €90 billion through a joint loan to Ukraine meaning that the frozen Euroclear assets will not be used...). Rates for mortgage loans with long fixed-rate terms will remain stable or even increase slightly in line with this – especially if geopolitical tensions persist.